It was a wonky Week 9 for us with our "Beat the Line" bets. We lost closing line value on the Kansas City Chiefs but still won our spread bet, and we created two full points of CLV on the New York Giants but lost in a blowout. Sometimes, that's the way she goes in the NFL.
It was still a winning week with an easy under 40 bet on the Green Bay Packers and the Los Angeles Rams, so let's keep it rolling and target three bets for Week 10 that should create CLV.
2023 record: 15-8-4 CLV, 13-12-1 ATS
We cashed an under ticket on the Packers in Week 9, and we're going right back to the well in Week 10.
The Packers have scored 20 points or fewer in six straight games, but their defense ranks 10th in the NFL in points per game allowed and sixth in the NFL in yards per play allowed. This defense is in line for another strong performance against a Steelers offense that ranks 30th in the NFL in points per game and 29th in yards per play.
Both Green Bay and Pittsburgh have gone under this total in four of their last five games, so we're all in on the under here.
The bet to make: Under 37.5 (-110 BetMGM)
This line is too short. Plain and simple.
Despite this game being held in Los Angeles, the Lions will have more fans in the stands than the Chargers. Detroit is also coming off a bye, while the Chargers will be traveling back from New York for a short week. L.A. shouldn't be getting any points for home-field advantage, yet the Lions are only 1.5-point favorites in the game? There's no way Detroit is only 1.5 points better than the Chargers on a neutral field, which is how we're approaching this matchup at SoFi Stadium.
Take the Lions at a cheap moneyline price and watch it balloon throughout the week.
The bet to make: Lions moneyline (-118 FanDuel)
How exactly are the Giants going to score a single point in this game?
New York was shut out, 40-0, against the Cowboys in Week 1, and that was with a healthy Daniel Jones and Darren Waller on the field. Neither player will be available for Week 10, so it will be Tommy DeVito running the offense for the third straight week. Could the Cowboys put up another 40-spot and hit this over by themselves? It's possible, but we think a sleepy, 28-6 final is more likely.
The bet to make: Under 39.5 (-110 DraftKings)
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